  The study focuses
on longer timescales, in a region where natural
variability on decade timescales is much larger than
in the tropics.
/ A.M. Costa Rica wire services photo. |
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 Published Tuesday, July 28, 2020 The
future holds better climate
predictions, research says By the A.M.
Costa Rica wire services
There are quantities like the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, that are known to promote trends in the weather over Europe. To that, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are predictable several years into the future, as suggested by a new study carried out under the lead of GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. According to the Germany based Center report, our planet’s climate system is complex. Different components, like atmosphere, ocean, sea and land ice influence each other and cause natural climate variations on a range of timescales from months to decades. Particularly for the long timescales, the ocean plays an essential role. In a new study, a research team led by GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel investigates the possibility of utilizing the wind field to predict the North Atlantic surface temperature variations several years into the future. Such variations of the sea surface temperature also have the potential to influence the climate in Europe. “Predictions of climate variations are possible for certain regions on Earth,” said Annika Reintges, Ph.D., scientist at GEOMAR and lead author of the study. "One example is the, every couple of years, recurring El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific, that can be predicted a few months ahead." According to Reintges, the study focuses on longer timescales, in a region where natural variability on decade timescales is much larger than in the tropics. Are such predictions possible? What are the requirements and which kind of information can be provided by such predictions? These questions were addressed by a research team of GEOMAR and of the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Research Warnemünde. “Indeed, long-term predictions are possible. This is enabled by the slow, over several years, varying oceanic processes,” Reintges said. “The difficulty is that ocean observations - that are necessary to start the model computation – must be as accurate as possible. However, ocean observations, in particular below the surface, are limited in quantity and quality.” The research team suggests the following mechanism to explain this fact: The winds cause a change in the ocean circulation. By this, a certain region in the North Atlantic accumulates an anomalous amount of heat. This heat is then transported towards Northeast over a time of several years. This finally results in a warming of the sea surface in the eastern North Atlantic, in response to the winds many years prior. “Previous studies have shown that the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic can influence the European climate. Therefore, such predictions of the North Atlantic surface temperature, covering several years are of great importance also for decision makers in politics, economy, society, and also for the public,” Reintges said. ---------------------- How could the study help with taking precautionary measures when predicting weather-related natural disasters? We would like to know your thoughts on this story. Send your comments to news@amcostarica.com |
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