By
the A.M. Costa Rica wire services
A radical decrease in greenhouse gas emissions is
needed if farmers are to have time to prepare for
major changes in rainfall that could decimate
crops, researchers said in a report released on
Monday.
Already wet areas will see more rain and dry areas
will get drier at a pace determined by emissions
levels, researchers said in the journal
"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences."
These changes will happen regardless of action
taken on climate change, but by curbing emissions,
countries can buy time to adapt to new rainfall
levels.
For this study, researchers looked at wheat,
soybeans, rice and maize, crops that make up about
40 percent of the global caloric intake, under
different emission scenarios.
"I think it's worrying," lead author Maisa Rojas,
professor of climatology at the University of
Chile told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
"Even in the low-emission scenarios you see the
time of emergence now or very soon."
"Time of emergence" is the year a region's normal
fluctuations in rainfall shift dramatically.
Most of the crops consumed around the world are
produced by rain fed-agriculture, according to the
International Water Management Institute, a
nonprofit science research organization.
About 60 percent of farmed land in South Asia and
95 percent in sub-Saharan Africa is rain
dependent.
If the world meets the goals set out in the 2016
Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature
rise to under 2 degrees Celsius, these regions
will have 20 to 30 years to prepare and adapt
farming practices.
If these standards are not met and emissions
continue at the current rate or increase, some
regions will see changes as early as 2020.
Rojas noted that poorer, dryer countries will
disproportionately feel the negative effects of
such changes and may become dependent on imports.
Dry regions like Southern Africa and Australia,
which she said are already seeing a decrease in
precipitation, need to immediately look into
irrigation systems, dams or growing different
foods altogether.
|
VOA courtesy photo
Most of
the crops consumed around the world are produced
by rain fed-agriculture.
Wet regions like India are more of a mystery.
More rain could benefit crops and boost food
production. However, more rain in combination
with increased heat and certain soil types may
lead to flooding, which could wipe out food
supplies.
If the Paris Agreement standards are met, the
most impacted areas will have until 2040 to
prepare for the coming precipitation changes.
They may have time to limit the land area harmed
by rainfall changes and prevent hunger or price
hikes to food supplies. This study, said Rojas,
is a first look at where we can expect those
changes to happen and roughly when they will
arrive.
"Every time we thought about climate change up
to now, we thought, 'This is something that will
happen in the future,'" said Rojas. "We need to
hurry up."
--------
Is it too late to prevent climate change? We would like to know
your thoughts on this story. Send your comments
to: news@amcostarica.com
|
