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Published
Tuesday, April 7, 2020
Hurricane
season forecast releasedBy the A.M. Costa Rica wire services The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be more active than usual, according to an outlook released last week by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, reported The Weather Channel. The group led by Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, calls for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or higher with 115-plus-mph winds on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This forecast is above the 30-year average, from 1981 to 2010, of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. "We anticipate that 2020 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity," Klotzbach said. Though the official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, storms can occasionally develop outside those months, as was the case in the previous three seasons with Subtropical Storm Andrea in May 2019, Tropical Storm Alberto in May 2018, and Tropical Storm Arlene in April 2017. The CSU outlook is based on more than 30 years of statistical factors combined with data from seasons exhibiting similar features of sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific oceans. According to the specialist, there is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and landfalls in any given season. "We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," Klotzbach said. "As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted." According to the report, El Niño and La Niña, the periodic warming/cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, can shift weather patterns over a period of months. Its status is always one factor that is considered in hurricane season forecasting. As of early spring, a weak Modoki El Niño was in place, but waters in March slowly cooled. Klotzbach noted that a transition to neutral- neither El Niño nor La Niña- or potentially even weak La Niña conditions are likely by this summer or fall. Long-range forecasters at both NOAA and The Weather Company, an IBM Business, were generally in agreement with Klotzbach, suggesting that neutral conditions are anticipated through the first half of the Hurricane season of June through August, or JJA, with either neutral or La Niña conditions possible in the second half, September through November, or SON. The status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or ENSO is notoriously difficult to predict. This is especially true from February to May, when the "spring predictability barrier" is in play, a period when forecast skill is lower than the rest of the year. La Niña generally acts as a speed boost to the Atlantic hurricane season, but it is just one factor that can lead to an active year. Hurricane seasons can be active even if La Niña is not in play. La Niña typically corresponds with a more active hurricane season because the cooler waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean end up causing less wind shear along with weaker low-level winds in the Caribbean Sea. La Niña can also enhance rising motion over the Atlantic Basin, making it easier for storms to develop. The La Niña years of 2010 and 2011 are among several tied for the third-most-active Atlantic seasons on record. Both years had 19 named storms. The next La Niña year, 2016, was also quite active, with 15 named storms that included Category 5 Matthew and three other major hurricanes. La Niña conditions recurred midway through the hyperactive and catastrophic 2017 season that produced devastating hurricanes: Harvey, Irma and Maria. One of the other ingredients that meteorologists, including Klotzbach and the CSU team, are looking at going into the hurricane season is warming temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Much of the Atlantic Basin's waters are already above average temperature-wise. The Gulf of Mexico is also several degrees above average, given recent heat and the lack of rain over the Southeast. But it isn't ocean temperatures in April that will help boost or curtail tropical systems. Rather, it is water temperatures during the hurricane season that will do that. Climate models suggest that most, if not the entire, basin will be warmer than average in the peak of the hurricane season. An above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes is more likely if temperatures in the main development region (MDR) between Africa and the Caribbean Sea are warmer than average. Conversely, below-average ocean temperatures can lead to fewer tropical systems than if waters were warmer. Assuming atmospheric factors are favorable, warmer waters in the MDR allow tropical waves, the formative engines that can eventually become tropical storms, to get closer to the Caribbean and the United States. The prevalence of wind shear and dry air across the Atlantic will also need to be watched over the next six to eight months. If La Niña does kick-in toward the end of the season, as many forecasters expect, and the atmosphere reacts, then there could be less wind shear and more favorable conditions for hurricane growth toward the end of the season. The amount of dry air rolls off the coast of Africa will also need to be monitored. Even if water temperatures are boiling and there is little wind shear, dry air can still disrupt developing tropical cyclones and even prohibit their birth to begin with. Hurricanes need a rather precise set of ingredients to come together in order for them to fester, so all of these ingredients will need to be monitored this year. The Weather Channel’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. More updated information can be reached at its site. ------------------------ Have you heard of emergencies in your community caused by the hurricane season last year? We would like to know your thoughts on this story. Send your comments to news@amcostarica.com |
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